A close look at projected changes in the Top 10 drugs by revenue between 2015 and 2023 reveals a significant downward trend in combined revenue. From 2015 to 2023 the combined revenue of the current Top 10 drugs will fall by 34% from USD 83 billion to USD 56 billion. The new Top 10 drugs in 2023 are expected to have a combined revenue of USD 68 billion, considerably less than today’s combined Top 10. In fact by 2023 a drug will only need revenue of USD 4 billion to make it into the Top10 vs USD 5 billion today.
Although Humira will hold top spot, 40% of those in the Top 10 today will drop out by 2023. Driven by increasing price measures, competition from biosimilars and more niche targeted therapies, the makeup of the Top 10 will be remarkably different in eight years.
The implications of this trend are clear. Big pharma need to bolster their pipelines with an increased number of promising candidates in order to fill the revenue void. A void in the case of the owners of the current Top 10 drugs amounts to USD 28 billion. Big pharma can’t rely on R&D alone; to be successful in this environment, partnering will play an increasingly important role. Simply put, companies that can’t do deals will go backwards.
Excerpt taken from EBD Group and Pharma Intelligence’s new report to be released at BioPharm America™ 2016 global life science partnering event, taking place in Boston next week, September 13–15.
The full report, “Pursuing Excellence: Identifying the Industry’s Top Performers” will be introduced and distributed in the Dealmaking program track on Tuesday, September 13.
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Editor-in-Chief, InsightFollow on Twitter More Content by Erin Righetti